By Heruth Berhane

One of the more interesting things about the North American media coverage on the Middle East is the way it ignores the inextricable political and historical links between those countries located on the Northern Eastern part of the Red Sea with those located on its South Western shores. Indeed, one cannot help but wonder if the same ethnocentric logic that imagines Israel as somehow an Ashkenazi, European and more civilized country, is also in operation when the people of Yemen, Sudan, or Somalia become the forgotten actors of the Middle East region. This invisibility, of course, suits all the major power brokers in the region except those attempting to build non-sectarian, inclusive societies.

Fortunately for us, in the past week the BBC in addition to most other media outlets has reported that the Ethiopian army (the US ally in the Horn of Africa region) crossed over into Somalia. Some euphemistically call the Ethiopian action an incursion while others call it an invasion. But, whatever one calls it the lack of analysis around the Ethiopian action shows how little people understand the far-reaching tentacles of the war on terror. Important links between events in the northern Red Sea nations and their southern compatriots need to be fleshed out, after all as Alex de Waal has argued the rise and fall of political Islam in the Horn of Africa in the 1990’s had a tremendous impact on the Middle East region even before September 11th ever happened.

The latest developments in the Horn of Africa have occurred in the context of the recent military victory in Southern Somalia of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). I have been told that ordinary people, especially women in Mogadishu supported the ICU because the alternative they faced was the 15 year ineptitude of so called secular warlords. These same warlords were recently supported by Ethiopia the US and the UN to form the present transitional government based in Baidao, yet rather than bring order, warlords continued to act with impunity. On the other hand, the rise of the ICU has brought stability to Mogadishu for the first time in 15 years. So, although some sections of the ICU would like to import a form of Saudi Wahabism into what is a largely Sufi, and therefore highly tolerant Muslim country, the victory of the ICU must be seen as a partial victory for ordinary people.

However, under the pretext that the ICU are made up of hard core Wahabi type Islamists that threaten stability in the Horn of Africa as well as the transitional government in Somalia, the Ethiopian state has decided to move into Somalia. This is a weak pretext given that residents of Mogadishu have been waiting for 15 years for a transition. Today, it is clear that there is a complicated proxy war happening in the Horn of Africa (one that in fact has been happening since the 90’s). In this war the US plays a heavy hand despite their supposed absence from the scene after Black Hawk Down.

The Ethiopian state has traditionally been the strongest state in the Horn of Africa, even in the Ottoman and early European colonial era (until the 1930’s). Also it is important in this present conflict to know that until the 1974 Ethiopian revolution the country’s state claimed to be a Christian orthodox state in communion with the pre-Chalcedonic, so called Oriental churches (Coptic, Armenian, etc) and with unbroken rule since the 4th century. Whatever else this history/myth may be it allows the contemporary Ethiopian state to project a particular kind of Christian image to itself and to the West despite the fact that its demographics tell a different story (half of Ethiopia’s population is Muslim). More importantly, what we can see is that such a strategy of extraversion by the Ethiopians, for what ever justified or unjustified reasons radically changes the internal meaning of cultural identities; so that those who were once neighbors and who have little history of religiously based in-fighting must inevitably become enemies.

Thus, the other context to the Ethiopian incursion into Somalia (which often uses ethnic Somali Ethiopian Soldiers) is the unfettered support of the Ethiopian regime by the US government despite the fact that since May 2005 the Ethiopian state has arrested the entire opposition, social justice activists, and shot and killed hundreds of ordinary demonstrators. In fact what is clear today is that the US has decided that the present regime in Ethiopia is the only desirable strong man in the Horn of Africa. One may even go so far as to say that the US indirectly instructed the regime of Meles Zenawi to arrest any alternative vision and players for the region, and thus to arrest the opposition members. The ICU is the first major sustained challenge to both the current Ethiopian state and current US policy in the region. However, part of the price paid for their slight victory is that Somalia will be invaded. And equally important, the Ethiopian Prime-minister will continue to strengthen his hand in the region through the total demolition of the Ethiopian opposition, and all those who may have an alternative, inclusive vision for the region.

The current regime in Ethiopia is made up of a coalition of ethnically based parties led by the Tigrai Peoples Liberation Front (Tigrai is a predominantly Orthodox Christian area in Northern Ethiopia). Prior to 1992, the TPLF was a rebel group whose operations were based in both Sudan and Somalia. In alliance with the Eritrean Peoples Liberation Front (also dominated by ethnic Tigrai people) the TPLF fought a guerilla war against the Soviet backed regime in Addis Ababa under the pretext of the right to self determination for Ethiopia’s various ethnic nationalities.

It is well documented that at the end of the Cold War and during the fall of the Soviet backed regime in Ethiopia in 1991/92, out of a number of stake holders, the TPLF was brought into the then secret peace talks orchestrated by the US because no one could doubt their military contribution to the demise of the admittedly tyrannical regime of Mengistu Haile-Mariam. However, after the fall of Mengistu’s regime, rather than engaging in a public process of reconciliation, the US treated the Ethiopian state as a prize the TPLF deserved to own as a reward for their contribution to ending communism. Thus, even in 1992 people who were opposed to organizing Ethiopian politics along ethnic lines were brutally killed, tortured and imprisoned. In the mean time, the leader of the TPLF was declared by Bill Clinton to be one of a new crop of African leaders committed to democracy.

One of the results of the 17 year civil war fought against Mengistu’s regime is that it allowed the TPLF and its allies to set up a highly trained military network. It is this network that allows the TPLF to retain power domestically. In addition, this network continues to be perceived by the west as the only institutionalized infrastructure strong enough to counter the so-called Islamist threat in the Horn of Africa. It would seem that the one thing the failed 1993 Operation Restore Hope (when their Black Hawk was downed) taught the Americans is that in order to win a war in Somalia you need soldiers who have an intimate knowledge of the lay of the land. Undoubtedly, the TPLF is the only large US allied army that has that knowledge. Thus, after the failed US operation in Somalia, the Ethiopian state took over as the main foreign intervener in Somalia. As reported by many including the International Crises Group, over the years, the TPLF has confirmed this status by keeping Somalia in a state of utter chaos. In addition the Ethiopian state has also supported the setting up of Puntland (which is led by the current leader of the Transitional Government in Somalia) as an autonomous and separate state from southern Somalia. Moreover, when necessary, as the New York Times has also recently reported, the US would supply cash and arms to secular warlords in Southern Somalia (even some of its former enemies) so that the internecine fighting would drag on. If end of the Cold War meant that the US would set up in Ethiopia a highly centralized, ethnically based dictatorship, in Somalia it meant war by proxy, chaos and confusion. To be sure, for the people of either country it is sometimes hard to tell the difference.

Of course, it is also hard to imagine how the TPLF would continue to monopolize violence in the Horn of Africa if the US and EU cut the 70% budgetary support it receives in the form of aid packages and loans. But the US tells itself that without the TPLF, a power vacuum would be created in the Horn of Africa that would lead to the rise of Islamists. On the other hand, the West has all but ignored the massive non-sectarian demonstrations ordinary citizens in Ethiopia have held for the past year. Obviously the US does not see that the people in the region may have other mechanisms to govern themselves. Nor do they see that by crushing and arresting non-sectarian political leaders (even if based in a religious or ethnic community) they give more breathing space to fundamentalist politics of all stripes. Contrary to the US point of view in the region, and however naively, in the past year ordinary Ethiopians mobilized their own Orange/Rose/Cedar revolution. What they found out is that if Uncle Sam is not interested in regime change demonstrators will be thrown in jail, shot and disappeared.

What all this means is that it is impossible in the Horn of Africa, for local people to use local institutions to solve problems that manifest to them as local but really in the final analyses are the sinister machinations of the war on terror. For instance, it is my understanding that some Women’s organizations in the Horn welcomed the arrival of the ICU; yet, they also said that they would challenge the creation of any new law that claimed that they should dress and act in a tradition that has nothing to do with their mothers (Somali women traditionally do not veil themselves). Instead, local civil society groups favoured the broad interpretation of customary law (pre-Islamic) together with Sharia law, and western law as the basis of a new civil code in Somalia (as is happening in present day (British) Somaliland). In any case this has been, willy, nilly, the practice since the colonial era, but always without the consent of ordinary folks. Now, because of the Ethiopian/US incursion into Somalia it is doubtful that we will ever hear the voices of those women who were the most likely people to be capable of articulating a just peace for the Somali people. These afore-mentioned women could have used the space opened by the ICU to debate their fate, and international civil society groups could have supported them. Instead, under the current incursion by Ethiopia democratic space has been narrowed to a sliver, it is most likely that we will have a winner takes all situation; yet another form of authoritarianism where everyone will be the loser. In fact since Ethiopia entered Somalia the ICU has walked away from the peace talks that were taking place in Khartoum and were hosted by the Arab League in conjunction with the African Union. But who would stay at the negotiating table when, behind your back you are being invaded?

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Below are links to a series of articles mentioned in the above commentary. I have also added some other articles that might paint a picture of some of what is going on in the Horn of Africa. Amnesty is also calling for an urgent action on behalf of two professors that are in prison in Ethiopia. One of them was a student of Anwar Sheik, and the New School has also organized stuff on his behalf. I believe that the CLC also put something out about the situation as well.

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A good analysis of the ICU

http://www.justiceafrica.org/blog/2006/06/22/somalia-who-are-the-real-terrorists/

Story from BBC NEWS:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/africa/5198338.stm

Story about failed CIA invlovement in Somalia just before the ICU victory

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/08/world/africa/08intel.html?ex=115172600&en=8dce70330129a8f1&ei=5070

Intrenational Crises Group Report. Counter-terrorism in Somalia: losing hearts and minds.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=3555&l=1

Article on political Islam in the Horn of Africa

http://conconflicts.ssrc.org/hornofafrica/chasing_ghosts/

News on Ethiopian Freedom act now before US Congress

http://www.ethiomedia.com/carepress/tplf_war_on_hr5680.html

Ethiopian opposition view on the war by proxy

http://www.addisvoice.com/why_should_ethiopians_die_in_som.htm

US troops in strange places

http://www.addisvoice.com/article/US%20troops%20in%20odd%20places.htm

http://scholarsatrisk.nyu.edu/ethiopia.html

Amnesty call to action
http://www.amnestyusa.org/countries/ethiopia/index.do

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